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Employers plan to hire 1.3 percent fewer graduates from the Class of 2018 for U.S. positions than they did from the Class of 2017, according to results of NACE’s Job Outlook 2018 Spring Update survey.

This latest projection is down from the 4.0 percent hiring increase employers anticipated for this class last November in the Job Outlook 2018 report. (See Figure 1.)

The fact that the college hiring outlook for the Class of 2018 has dropped this spring is a prime example of how volatility in a small number of industries can impact the overall hiring outlook. Two industries in particular are driving this overall decrease. Insurance firms responding to the Job Outlook 2018 Spring Update survey anticipate decreasing hires by 42 percent due to the recent natural disasters—hurricanes, floods, and wildfires—that caused high dollar amounts in catastrophic losses. Meanwhile, retail employers plan to decrease their hires by almost 33 percent, citing the changing landscape of their industry and lack of new openings as key factors.

This marks the first hiring projection that is a decrease since the Class of 2010, when employers planned to cut hiring by 7 percent.

The Job Outlook 2018 Spring Update survey—which updates the hiring projections for the Class of 2018 that were reported in the Job Outlook 2018 survey in November—was conducted from February 12 – March 30, 2018. The survey was sent to 958 NACE employer members; 150, or 15.7 percent, responded. The Job Outlook 2018 Spring Update report is available free to members through MyNACE.

Figure 1: Job Outlook Hiring Projections, 2014 – 2018